Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.091886 0.102061 0.112487 0.123942 0.136148 0.148739 0.162683
2025-02-09 0.074828 0.089996 0.106325 0.125088 0.145934 0.168267 0.193887
2025-02-16 0.061226 0.079285 0.099615 0.123903 0.151839 0.182692 0.219069
2025-02-23 0.055068 0.075832 0.100074 0.129929 0.165184 0.205003 0.252883
2025-03-02 0.049811 0.072586 0.100063 0.134817 0.176789 0.225085 0.284100
2025-03-09 0.042062 0.065278 0.094310 0.132080 0.178762 0.233499 0.301461
2025-03-16 0.035195 0.058293 0.088243 0.128298 0.178911 0.239314 0.315420
2025-03-23 0.032576 0.056687 0.088805 0.132628 0.188878 0.256837 0.343335
2025-03-30 0.029715 0.054410 0.088220 0.135275 0.196601 0.271574 0.367918
2025-04-06 0.027769 0.053231 0.088946 0.139513 0.206280 0.288720 0.395511
2025-04-13 0.024648 0.049964 0.086522 0.139337 0.210126 0.298528 0.414081
2025-04-20 0.024384 0.051070 0.090257 0.147516 0.224908 0.322159 0.449910
2025-04-27 0.021924 0.048607 0.088932 0.148996 0.231316 0.335831 0.474236
2025-05-04 0.020025 0.046898 0.088630 0.151901 0.239722 0.352257 0.502362
2025-05-11 0.017423 0.043687 0.085849 0.151135 0.243108 0.362232 0.522444
2025-05-18 0.016871 0.044047 0.088522 0.158224 0.257237 0.386247 0.560550
2025-05-25 0.016056 0.043822 0.090220 0.163874 0.269423 0.407810 0.595672
2025-06-01 0.013599 0.040151 0.086154 0.160785 0.269318 0.413094 0.609802
2025-06-08 0.011237 0.036285 0.081460 0.156482 0.267291 0.415671 0.620325
2025-06-15 0.010666 0.036076 0.082847 0.161424 0.278367 0.435778 0.653733
2025-06-22 0.009838 0.035197 0.083012 0.164440 0.286691 0.452236 0.682470
2025-06-29 0.009343 0.035002 0.084338 0.169263 0.297648 0.472313 0.716072
2025-07-06 0.008199 0.033115 0.082538 0.169063 0.301274 0.482446 0.736627